By American Jewish Committee,
On June 13, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a preemptive and coordinated military strike against the Iranian regime in response to an imminent and existential nuclear threat. The campaign, conducted in coordination with the United States, targeted key Iranian nuclear and military facilities. In retaliation, Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles and launched thousands of drones at Israeli population centers, killing 30 civilians and injuring hundreds. On June 21, the U.S. carried out its own precision airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. A ceasefire between Israel and Iran, brokered in part by the U.S., was reached on June 23.
The Iranian regime’s pursuit of nuclear weapons and support for terror proxies threatens not only Israel, but also global peace and stability. AJC experts stationed around the world weigh in on what this critical moment means for Israel’s security, regional dynamics, and geopolitics.
The Big Picture: Defining Moment for U.S. Leadership and Israeli Defense
“First, President Trump demonstrated that when an American president lays down a red line, it’s foolish to discount it. This re-establishes American credibility, which has been questioned and weakened over the past couple of decades.
Second, last weekend’s bold U.S. action answered critics who saw a rupture in the U.S.-Israel relationship. There may be differences of strategy, priorities, and emphasis—a normal state of affairs, even between the closest friends—but there should be no doubt that America, at least under the current administration, has Israel’s back.
Third, in a region where military might determines survival, Israel once again showed its will and capacity to carry out decisive, high-risk, defensive actions. This raises its standing as a desirable security partner among neighbors with no ideological or historic conflict.
Fourth, while I hope recent events have forced Iran to abandon its ambition to destroy Israel, I fear that’s too much to expect. As long as the mullahs remain in power, the regime will likely continue entrenching, and seeking to expand, its revolution. I hope the Iranian people are able to learn the truth of this costly humiliation of their repressive government.
Fifth, whether the ceasefire holds depends on Iran. Any new aggression should prompt swift retaliation. The coming months will reveal whether diplomacy remains possible.”
Jason Isaacson, AJC Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer
Analysis from Israel: Focus on a Comprehensive Agreement
“In just 12 days, Israel eliminated Iran’s existential nuclear and missile threat using decades of intelligence and aerial precision. Israel struck only military and terror targets — including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) command centers, weapons factories, and nuclear scientists — while acting in full accordance with international law. Civilians were warned and evacuated. Meanwhile, Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles and 1,000 explosive drones at Israeli cities, deliberately targeting civilians, killing 30 people and wounding hundreds. A ceasefire is now in place, but Israel is seeking enforceable guarantees as part of a future agreement that must all be included: that Iran never develops nuclear weapons, never possesses missiles with a range of more than 1000 km, and never arms terror proxies. Without that, Iran will resume its deadly ambitions. This war also showed Iran is isolated, with Russia, China, and its terror proxies not intervening and only issuing statements. Looking ahead, a real agreement could stabilize Gaza and expand the Abraham Accords across the region.”
Lt. Col. (Res.) Avital Leibovich, Director, AJC Jerusalem
Analysis from America: Which Path will the U.S. Choose?
“We find ourselves at a critical—and uncertain— point. President Trump announced today that the United States will meet Iran next week for talks. During the announcement, President Trump stated that a nuclear agreement with Iran may no longer be necessary because its program was destroyed during the 12-day war. His statements raise many questions about the purpose and the goals of next week’s talks. Further complicating this discussion are varying reports and statements from within the United States and Israel about the extent of damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities and current nuclear breakout time. There is also uncertainty about how much of Iran’s enriched uranium was destroyed and if Iran can develop a crude nuclear device or dirty bomb. President Trump remains steadfast in his declaration that Iran will not be able to enrich uranium anymore. While significant questions and dangers surround the future of U.S – Israel – Iran relations, there are semblances of hope that if negotiations and understandings can move forward, there may be new opportunities to reach agreements to release the 50 Israeli hostages, end the war in Gaza, and pursue new opportunities of Israeli-Arab integration.
Benjamin Rogers, AJC Director of Middle East and North Africa Initiatives
Analysis on China: America’s Message to China, What it Means for Taiwan, Oil Experts, and Long-term Iran-China Ties
“As we watch the direction that Iran takes in the months ahead, it’s important that we keep our eye on China. China accounts for 90% of Iran’s oil exports and relies on the Middle East and freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz for its energy needs. China needs a stable Middle East. While China condemned Israel and the United States for their attacks on Iran, it now reaps the benefits if a more peaceful and stable Middle East results. We can expect China to play a significant economic role in Iran’s reconstruction, and it will likely lend both political and material support to the Iranian regime as long as it amplifies Chinese influence and interests. Any diversion for the U.S. from Asia and the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East is welcomed by China. An added benefit of the U.S.’s bold decision to bomb the Iranian sites is a strong message to China not to underestimate U.S. power. It will defend and support U.S. interests. The application to Taiwan is not a message lost on President Xi, nor to friends and allies in the region.”
Shira Loewenberg, AJC Director, Asia Pacific Institute
Analysis from Europe: Will a Sidelined Europe Be Able to Unify and Help Shape the Post-Conflict Order?
“While recent events highlight the need for sustained American leadership in the Middle East, Europe—long divided on how to confront the Iranian threat—has largely stayed on the sidelines. For too long, it has clung to the illusion that preserving the status quo ensures stability. In reality, this passivity has only emboldened extremist actors.
Now, as Iran’s regime shows signs of decline, the old argument for accommodation appears increasingly untenable. A critical step forward would be for Europe to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. The Hezbollah precedent is instructive: allowing such groups political cover only strengthens their ability to destabilize societies and export violence. Defeating these entities—not legitimizing them—is the only path to lasting security.
This moment presents Europe with a unique opportunity to reassert influence. A more unified, principled approach—one that leverages Europe’s economic ties to key regional players, especially Israel, and contributes to post-conflict reconstruction—could position Europe as a constructive force in shaping a more stable Middle East. The time for strategic clarity and moral resolve is now.”
Anne-Sophie Sebban-Bécache, AJC Vice President, Europe
Analysis from the United Arab Emirates: A New Chapter is Unfolding—Driven by Israel’s Military and Intelligence Edge
“Israel’s demonstration of overwhelming military and intelligence dominance has already shifted regional dynamics: Hezbollah remained on the sidelines, and Damascus refused to support Iran. Gulf states are split—Qatar and Oman quietly backed Iran, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE welcomed Iran’s setback. It remains unclear, however, whether that will translate into a desire by the Saudi leadership to pursue closer relations with Israel. At least in the UAE, Israeli weapons-producing and high-tech companies stand to gain a considerable boost in sales of their products, but this does not necessarily mean a closer political relationship. Gulf states’ confidence in U.S. military strength is reinforcing their preference for Washington over Beijing as a partner in AI and high-tech development. China’s reported warning to Iran against blockading the Strait of Hormuz may help sustain Gulf efforts to balance ties, even as China remains their top energy customer. We don’t know yet whether Israel’s demonstrated military power will lead to greater interest on the part of the major Arab states to seek to develop more of a strategic partnership with Israel or try to work to contain Israeli military power.”
Amb. (ret.) Marc J. Sievers, Director, AJC Abu Dhabi: The Sidney Lener Center for Arab-Jewish Understanding
Analysis from Latin America: Shutting Down Hezbollah’s Terror Network
“Latin America will clearly become much more secure with Israel confronting head-on Iran’s designs for a nuclear arms program, neutralizing Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah, and clamping down on the main source of terrorism and antisemitism in the region. Iran’s and Hezbollah’s engagement with the vast organized criminal networks in Latin America is well known. In addition, we expect that the funding for Iranian media outlets such as HISPANTV used to disseminate antisemitic and anti-Israel narratives will dry up as Iran faces an economic downturn due to the recent attacks.”
Dina Siegel Vann, AJC Director, The Arthur and Rochelle Belfer Institute for Latino and Latin American Affairs (BILLA)
Analysis from Africa: Why Africa Welcomed the Israel-Iran Ceasefire
There was great concern that a protracted conflict between Israel and Iran would affect many African countries on numerous levels. On a practical level, many African countries have workers in Israel. A continuing conflict would see workers wanting to leave their place of employment and ultimately Israel.
Egypt was very exposed as they are heavily reliant on Israeli gas, and talks of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz would have had a knock-on effect on countries in Africa, which are dependent on shipping and the logistics associated with the industry. It would have also affected African countries that supply agricultural products, such as meat, fruit, and vegetables. Another concern was that of countries in Africa that provide fuel subsidies. A big spike in oil prices would have exposed many countries across the region. The cease-fire has been welcomed across the continent.
Wayne Sussman, AJC Director, Africa Institute
