OPEC, US and Saudi controversy will impact the Middle East, as it could encourage closer Israel partnerships with the Gulf and show that Israel is a reliable partner of the US at the same time.
By SETH J. FRANTZMAN, Jerusalem Post,
In the wake of the OPEC decision to cut production of oil, there has been an outpouring of anger at Saudi Arabia in the US and the West, as politicians and commentators express concern over oil price increases and their implications for US mid-terms as well as Russia-Saudi ties.
The larger picture in the Middle East and Washington is a sense that Russia has made “inroads” with Saudi Arabia, according to an article at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The US position that Russia’s war against Ukraine is actually a war of autocracy against democracy has highlighted the overlapping interests of Russia and GCC states. For their part, the GCC states have displayed little desire to comply with demands from US officials that they do not flirt with Russia or China,” the article notes.
The US was pressuring Saudi Arabia to not cut production, according to reports. Nevertheless, OPEC members went ahead and cut production. The New York Times claimed that “OPEC and Russia” aim to raise oil prices. Biden administration officials see this as a slight and see it as “aligning with Russia,” according to The Guardian. But the same major media has reported that “Saudi Arabia and Russia may find their oil pricing power limited,” according to the NYT.
How much oil is produced per day?
Indeed, there are other oil producers out there. While the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia are the top three oil producers, with some 30 million barrels per day in 2021. Canada, Iraq, China, Iran, the UAE, Brazil and Kuwait also produce more than a million barrels per day. Norway, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Qatar, Libya, Mexico and several other states also churn out more than a million barrels per day.
Nevertheless, it’s clear that when it comes to the biggest producers, Saudi Arabia matters. With the OPEC cut the consensus in some media, think tanks and commentator circles is that Riyadh is the problem. A Bloomberg opinion piece, for instance, claimed that the “Saudi-Russian oil axis” has snubbed Biden. This is an attempt to make this issue very personal. And it’s not the only piece at Bloomberg slamming Saudi Arabia. Another report claimed “Putin finally finds a true friend: Saudi Arabia.”
In Congress, members are angry as well. Reports say Tom Malinowski suggested the US should pull troops and missile systems from the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
“This is a hostile act by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, designed to hurt the United States and our allies and to help Russia, despite President Biden’s overtures. I’m introducing legislation with Rep. Sean Casten to withdraw our troops from both countries,” he wrote. He says that there is “no reason why we should defend a Saudi dictatorship’s oil fields if it is using its control of oil markets to tank our economy and help our enemies.”
“This is a hostile act by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, designed to hurt the United States and our allies and to help Russia, despite President Biden’s overtures. I’m introducing legislation with Rep. Sean Casten to withdraw our troops from both countries.”
US Congressman Tom Malinowski
He goes on to note that the US has a hard time increasing its own production because “the Inflation Reduction Act requires one new oil/gas lease for every new wind/solar one. But our oil companies have resisted investing in new production.”
Senator Bernie Sanders also said the US should work against OPEC’s “illegal price fixing” and “eliminate military assistance to Saudi Arabia.” Former US Ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, who is now a professor and well-known voice on Twitter, noted “it’s time for some realism in our policy towards Saudi Arabia. Our Saudi colleagues do not share our values or security and economic interests. So let’s just be transactional and stop pretending there is anything special about this relationship. And no more presidential visits.”
The theme of the critique is clear; it runs the gamut from “Saudi is not an ally,” to claims that Saudi Arabia is trying to influence the US mid-terms; that Riyadh is an ally of Russia; that the US and others, such as Germany, should cut Riyadh off from arms and defense supplies; to recognition that US pressure didn’t work and now the US has few friends inside OPEC these days. The corollary then is to wonder about the US role in general in the Middle East.
One politician slammed Saudi Arabia as “who do they think they are?” after the news broke. This conjures up the teaser for an Economic 1845 Magazine article that read “meet Muhammad bin Salman, the millennial autocrat who controls our oil.”
These kinds of comments, portraying Saudi oil as “our oil” or wondering who “they” think they are, probably won’t result in closer US-Saudi ties. The anger at think tanks, some of them connected to Qatar or funded by isolationist lobbies that have been for the Iran deal; and the anger among politicians who fear this will influence the mid-terms; can have real-world effects.
If Saudi-US relations suffer there is always going to be someone to fill the vacuum; meaning if Saudi feels it has fewer ties in the West, it will find ties elsewhere. Similarly, this can impact the Abraham Accords because the UAE is a close partner of Israel and there may be some blowback regarding the UAE’s position.
Overall, this would tie in well for Netanyahu if he performs well in the next elections; because he was skeptical of some of the partisan anti-Israel views in the US anyway; but it may not bode well in general for the region. There is a sense that the US is teetering on a fault line here; that the US has wanted to “leave” the Middle East for the last decade; and this has resulted in Iran being empowered and chaos is unleashed.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is also part of the chaos that happens when the US is seen as weak, but in the Middle East, the repercussions of the US flip-flopping on ties to the Gulf will have effects on Israel because Gulf states see Israel as a partner these days.
That could mean closer ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia because Riyadh isn’t really becoming close to Russia; it’s just trying to forge its own way and deal with the fact that it knows there is growing critique in Washington.
Overall, OPEC, US and Saudi controversy will impact the Middle East, as it could encourage closer Israel partnerships with the Gulf and show that Israel is a reliable partner of the US at the same time. It could also embolden Russia, Iran and Turkey, which could lead to blowback in the region; and instability in Syria or Iraq.
