By Gallia Lindenstrauss, Atlantic Council, -MENASource
After supporting various opposition factions throughout the Syrian civil war, a risky policy that frequently seemed to be failing, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s gamble on the rebels appears to have paid off with the toppling of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
The historic development has many benefits for Turkey, but Ankara has two contrasting visions for this new Syria. One envisions a stabilized and independent (albeit militarily weak) country, while the other envisions a Syria that would function as a Turkish protectorate state.
Both visions share the need for a reunified Syria with a centralized regime, but they differ substantially in the means to, and motives for, that end. However, one of these options—the vision of Syria as a forward base for Turkey—brings with it a particularly enhanced risk of regional concerns and inter-state instability. At this fragile moment, all actors now involved in negotiations with Damascus over reconstruction would be wise to push for a more independent Syria.
Turkey as a strategic hub
In one vision, Syria becomes a safe transit point for trade and energy routes, with Turkey as a hub from the Gulf states to Europe. This vision can only translate into a reality if Syria secures desperately needed foreign investment and reconstruction. For that investment to take place, Damascus is tasked with appealing to different regional and international actors.
Syria cannot be seen as leaning too much on Turkey, nor can it be seen as presenting a new threat to neighboring states. Israel is concerned about the emerging regime in Syria because of the Jihadist background of some of its members. It is trying to advance through political channels and military actions a demand that Syria be demilitarized south of Damascus.
While Israel’s demands may seem far-reaching, they do indicate that, following the surprise attack of October 7, 2023, Israel is far less willing to take any chances regarding worrying developments from its neighbors.
Risks of a more ambitious Ankara
Turkey’s second, dueling vision is more ambitious, pursuing Syria as a forward post and part of Ankara’s exclusive zone of interest. As Erdogan stated, “the events in Syria remind us that Turkey is bigger than Turkey itself.” This vision includes erecting Turkish bases within the country. Reports of defense discussions between Ankara and the new regime, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, in Damascus seem to suggest Ankara has its eye on using Syrian territory to strengthen its defense. Indeed, Turkey has significant security concerns in Syria, ranging from jihadist and Kurdish terror threats on its borders to domestic concerns over refugees and its own Kurdish minority.
